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Sound and Fury: McCloskey and Significance Testing in Economics

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Author Info

  • Kevin D. Hoover

    (University of California, Davis)

  • Mark V. Siegler

    (California State University, Sacramento)

Abstract

For about twenty years, Deidre McCloskey has campaigned to convince the economics profession that it is hopelessly confused about statistical significance. She argues that many practices associated with significance testing are bad science and that most economists routinely employ these bad practices: “Though to a child they look like science, with all that really hard math, no science is being done in these and 96 percent of the best empirical economics. . .” (McCloskey 1999). McCloskey’s charges are analyzed and rejected. That statistical significance is not economic significance is a jejune and uncontroversial claim, and there is no convincing evidence that economists systematically mistake the two. Other elements of McCloskey’s analysis of statistical significance are shown to be ill-founded, and her criticisms of practices of economists are found to be based in inaccurate readings and tendentious interpretations of their work. Properly used, significance tests are a valuable tool for assessing signal strength, for assisting in model specification, and for determining causal structure.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0511018.

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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 29 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0511018

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 53
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: statistical significance; economic significance; significance testing; regression analysis; econometric methodology; Deirdre McCloskey; Neyman-Pearson testing;

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References

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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Interview with Bill Starbuck
    by Peter Klein in Organizations and Markets on 2007-04-16 14:54:51
  2. Ritual and rationality
    by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2006-02-24 13:09:08
  3. Hoover & Siegler: McCloskey is Oh So Wrong About Statistical Significance (UPDATED)
    by Kevin in truck and barter on 2006-01-19 21:06:45
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Cited by:
  1. Thomas Mayer, 2006. "The Empirical Significance of Econometric Models," Working Papers 620, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  2. Tom Engsted, 2009. "Statistical vs. Economic Significance in Economics and Econometrics: Further comments on McCloskey & Ziliak," CREATES Research Papers 2009-17, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Stephen T. Ziliak & Deirdre N. McCloskey, 2013. "We Agree That Statistical Significance Proves Essentially Nothing: A Rejoinder to Thomas Mayer," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 10(1), pages 97-107, January.
  4. Thomas Mayer, 2012. "Ziliak and McCloskey's Criticisms of Significance Tests: An Assessment," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(3), pages 256-297, September.
  5. Thomas Mayer, 2012. "Ziliak and McClosky’s Criticisms of Significance Tests: A Damage Assessment," Working Papers 126, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  6. Mayer, Thomas, 2006. "The Empirical Significance of Econometric Models," Working Papers 06-20, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics.
  7. Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 2012. "Statistical Significance in the New Tom and the Old Tom: A Reply to Thomas Mayer," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(3), pages 298-308, September.
  8. Tatom, John, 2010. "Financial wellbeing and some problems in assessing its link to financial education," MPRA Paper 26411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Mayer, Thomas, 2012. "Ziliak and McClosky's Criticisms of Significance Tests: A Damage Assessment," Working Papers 2012-06, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics.
  10. Thomas Mayer, 2013. "Reply to Deirdre McCloskey and Stephen Ziliak on Statistical Significance," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 10(1), pages 87-96, January.
  11. Kozo Mayumi & Mario Giampietro & Jesus Ramos-Martin, 2012. "Reconsideration of Dimensions and Curve Fitting Practice in View of Georgescu-Roegen’s Epistemology in Economics," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 17-35, December.
  12. Meszaros, Sandor, 2008. "Theory testing (hypothesis testing) in agricultural economics," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, issue 107, March.

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