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Probability, Econometrics and Truth

Author

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  • Keuzenkamp,Hugo A.

Abstract

When John Maynard Keynes likened Jan Tinbergen's early work in econometrics to black magic and alchemy, he was expressing a widely held view of a new discipline. However, even after half a century of practical work and theorizing by some of the most accomplished social scientists, Keynes' comments are still repeated today. This book assesses the foundations and development of econometrics and sets out a basis for the reconstruction of the foundations of econometric inference by examining the various interpretations of probability theory which underlie econometrics. Keuzenkamp claims that the probabilistic foundations of econometrics are weak, and although econometric inferences may yield interesting knowledge, claims to be able to falsify or verify economic theories are unwarranted. Methodological falsificationism in econometrics is an illusion. Instead, it is argued, econometrics should locate itself in the tradition of positivism.

Suggested Citation

  • Keuzenkamp,Hugo A., 2000. "Probability, Econometrics and Truth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521553599.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:cbooks:9780521553599
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    Cited by:

    1. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard, 2010. "Can statistics do without artefacts?," MPRA Paper 42867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Giorgio Fagiolo & Paul Windrum & Alessio Moneta, 2006. "Empirical Validation of Agent Based Models: A Critical Survey," LEM Papers Series 2006/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Skouras, Spyros, 2007. "Decisionmetrics: A decision-based approach to econometric modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 414-440, April.
    4. Köllő, János, 2001. "Hozzászólás az elmaradt minimálbérvitához [Contribution to an omitted debate on the minimum wage]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1064-1080.
    5. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Automated Discovery In Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 3-20, February.
    6. Kevin Hoover & Mark Siegler, 2008. "Sound and fury: McCloskey and significance testing in economics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 1-37.
    7. Garrone Giovanna & Marchionatti Roberto, 2007. "Keynes, statistics and econometrics," CESMEP Working Papers 200703, University of Turin.
    8. Asad Zaman, 2010. "Causal Relations via Econometrics," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 2(1), pages 36-56, April.
    9. Philip E. Mirowski, 2012. "The Cowles Commission as an Anti-Keynesian Stronghold 1943–54," Chapters, in: Microfoundations Reconsidered, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Ziliak, Stephen T. & McCloskey, Deirdre N., 2004. "Size matters: the standard error of regressions in the American Economic Review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 527-546, November.
    11. Garrone Giovanna & Marchionatti Roberto, 2007. "The appropriate style of economic discourse. Keynes on Economics and Econometrics," CESMEP Working Papers 200702, University of Turin.
    12. van den Hauwe, Ludwig, 2007. "Did F. A. Hayek Embrace Popperian Falsificationism? A Critical Comment About Certain Theses of Popper, Duhem and Austrian Methodology," MPRA Paper 6067, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Luptak, Martin & Boda, Daniel & Szucs, Gabor, 2015. "ORBIS as a Research Tool: Examination of the Capital Structure of the Hungarian and French Wine Industry," Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference (2015), Kotor, Montengero, in: Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference, Kotor, Montengero, 10-11 September 2015, pages 120-129, IRENET - Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy, Zagreb.
    14. Hubbard, Raymond & Lindsay, R. Murray, 2013. "From significant difference to significant sameness: Proposing a paradigm shift in business research," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(9), pages 1377-1388.
    15. Köllő, János, 2010. "Vállalati reakciók a gazdasági válságra, 2008-2009 [Corporate reactions to the economic crisis, 2008-9]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1045-1064.
    16. Karoly Fazekas & Gyorgy Molnar (ed.), 2011. "The Hungarian Labour Market 2011," The Hungarian Labour Market Yearbooks, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, number 2011, December.
    17. Stefania D'Amico, 2005. "Density selection and combination under model ambiguity: an application to stock returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Stefania D'Amico, 2004. "Density Estimation and Combination under Model Ambiguity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 273, Society for Computational Economics.

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