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Monetary aggregates and output

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Author Info
Scott Freeman
Finn E. Kydland

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Abstract

This paper offers a general equilibrium model that explains how the observed correlations of money and output fluctuations may come about through endogenously determined fluctuations in the money multiplier. The model is calibrated to meet long run features of the U.S. economy (including monetary features) and then subjected to shocks to the Solow residual following a random process like that observed in U.S. data. The model's predicted business-cycle frequency correlations, of both real and nominal variables, share the following features with U.S. data: i) M1 is positively correlated with real output; ii) the money multiplier and deposit-to-currency ratio are positively correlated with real output; iii) the price level is negatively correlated with output [in spite of (i) and (ii)]; iv) the correlation of M1 with contemporaneous prices is substantially weaker than the correlation of M1 with real output; v) correlations among real variables are essentially unchanged under different monetary policy regimes; and vi) real money balances are smoother than money demand equations would predict. Although features (i) and (iv) may have been considered support for a causal influence of money on output, the paper demonstrates that they are consistent with an economy in which money has no such causal influence.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1998-013.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1998-013

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Keywords: Money supply;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 347-369, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Leamer, Edward E., 1985. "Vector autoregressions for causal inference?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 255-304, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, Summer.
  4. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Solow, Robert M, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics We Should All Believe In?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 230-32, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1995. "Inside Money, Outside Money, and Short-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1354-86, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Richard D. Porter & Ruth A. Judson, 1996. "The location of U.S. currency: how much is abroad?," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 883-903.
  9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 346-53, May.
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  12. Schreft, S L, 1992. "Transaction Costs and the Use of Cash and Credit," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 283-96, April.
  13. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1994. "A sticky-price manifesto," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 127-151, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1997. "Some Thoughts on Practical Stabilization Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 236-39, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Coleman, Wilbur John, II, 1996. "Money and Output: A Test of Reverse Causation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 90-111, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Robert B. Litterman & Laurence M. Weiss, 1984. "Money, real interest rates, and output: a reinterpretation of postwar U.S. data," Staff Report 89, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Blanchard, Olivier, 1997. "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 244-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Scott Freeman, 1986. "Inside Money, Monetary Contractions, and Welfare," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 87-98, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Cooley, Thomas F. & Ohanian, Lee E., 1991. "The cyclical behavior of prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 25-60, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Robert B. Barsky & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1989. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 2688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 1994. "On the welfare cost of inflation," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 94-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  23. Freeman, Scott & Huffman, Gregory W, 1991. "Inside Money, Output, and Causality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(3), pages 645-67, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Lacker, Jeffrey M., 1988. "Inside money and real output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 9-14. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1996-2), pages 1-78. [Downloadable!]
  27. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peter N. Ireland, 2002. "Endogenous Money or Sticky Prices?," NBER Working Papers 9390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. S. Boragan Aruoba & Christopher J. Waller & Randall Wright, 2009. "Money and capital: a quantitative analysis," Working Papers 2009-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Stefania Albanesi, . "Inflation and Inequality," Working Papers 199, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Stefania Albanesi, 2002. "Inflation and Inequality," Macroeconomics 0201002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Seth Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2009. "Money and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," TÜSİAD-Koç University Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0906, TUSIAD-Koc University Economic Research Forum. [Downloadable!]
  6. Burton Abrams & Russell Settle, 2005. "Is Money Neutral in the Long Run?," Working Papers 05-04, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Antoine Martin, 2002. "Endogenous multiple currencies," Research Working Paper RWP 02-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Stefania Albanesi & V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2003. "Expectation traps and monetary policy," Staff Report 319, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "Non-convexities in quantitative general equilibrium studies of business cycles," Staff Report 312, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. C. Gabriel Di Bella & David Hauner, 2005. "How Useful Is Monetary Econometrics in Low-Income Countries? The Case of Money Demand and the Multipliers in Rwanda," IMF Working Papers 05/178, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2007. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Enzo Dia, 2004. "Monopolistic Pricing in the Banking Industry: a Dynamic Portfolio Model," Finance 0411025, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Dressler, Scott & Li, Victor, 2007. "Inside Money, Credit, and Investment," MPRA Paper 1734, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Peter Ireland, 2005. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Peter Ireland on Money and the Business Cycle," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(1), November. [Downloadable!]
  15. Dressler, Scott J., 2009. "Economies of scale in banking, confidence shocks, and business cycles," MPRA Paper 13310, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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