Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Causality And Price Discovery: An Application Of Directed Acyclic Graphs

Contents:

Author Info

  • Haigh, Michael S.
  • Bessler, David A.

Abstract

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG's) and Error Correction Models (ECM's) are employed to analyze questions of price discovery between spatially separated commodity markets and the transportation market linking them together. Results from our analysis suggest these markets are highly interconnected but it is the inland commodity market that is strongly influenced by both the transportation and commodity export markets. However, the commodity markets affect the volatility of the transportation market over longer horizons. Our results suggest that transportation rates are critical in the price discovery process lending support for the recent development of exchange traded barge rate futures contracts.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28588
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics in its series Working Papers with number 28588.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:umdrwp:28588

Contact details of provider:
Phone: 301-405-1290
Fax: 301-314-9032
Web page: http://www.arec.umd.edu/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing;

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Barry K. Goodwin & Nicholas E. Piggott, 2001. "Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 302-317.
  2. Godfrey,L. G., 1991. "Misspecification Tests in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521424592.
  3. Johansen, S., 1991. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Papers 76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Impulse Response and Forecast Error Variance Asymptotics in Nonstationary VAR's," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1102, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. David A. Bessler & Derya G. Akleman, 1998. "Farm Prices, Retail Prices, and Directed Graphs: Results for Pork and Beef," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1144-1149.
  6. Geraci, Vincent J & Prewo, Wilfried, 1977. "Bilateral Trade Flows and Transport Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(1), pages 67-74, February.
  7. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  10. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
  12. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Tse, Yiuman, 1996. "Cointegration tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 401-410, August.
  13. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2000. "Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in International Grain Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 881-896.
  14. Bessler, David A. & Fuller, Stephen W., 2000. "Railroad wheat transportation markets in the central plains: modeling with error correction and directed graphs," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 21-39, March.
  15. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
  16. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
  17. Swanson, N.R. & Granger, C.W.J., 1994. "Impulse Response Functions Based on Causal Approach to Residual Orthogonalization in Vector Autoregressions," Papers 9-94-1, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  18. Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas & Wohlgenant, Michael K., 1990. "Testing the law of one price when trade takes time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 21-40, March.
  19. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Nomikos, Nikos K., 2000. "Constant vs. time-varying hedge ratios and hedging efficiency in the BIFFEX market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 229-248, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Alessio Moneta, 2008. "Graphical causal models and VARs: an empirical assessment of the real business cycles hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 275-300, September.
  2. Yang, Jian, 2005. "International bond market linkages: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 39-54, January.
  3. Ayyagari, Meghana & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2006. "How important are financing constraints ? The role of finance in the business environment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3820, The World Bank.
  4. Alessio Moneta, 2003. "Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressions," LEM Papers Series 2003/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  5. Alessio Moneta & Peter Spirtes, 2005. "Graph-Based Search Procedure for Vector Autoregressive Models," LEM Papers Series 2005/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  6. Wang, Zijun, 2010. "Dynamics and causality in industry-specific volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1688-1699, July.
  7. Power, Gabriel J. & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2009. "The Price Shock Transmission during the 2007-2008 Commodity Bull Cycle: A Structural Vector Auto-Regression Approach to the "Chicken-or-Egg" Problem," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49538, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  8. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Bernanke Structural VAR Methods: The Impacts of High Soy Meal and Soybean Prices," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 35(03), November.
  9. Bryant, Henry L. & Bessler, David A. & Haigh, Michael S., 2003. "Causality In Futures Markets," Working Papers 28574, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  10. Bizimana, Jean-Claude & Bessler, David A. & Angerer, Jay P., 2013. "Impact of Market Information System (E-Soko) on Beans Markets Integration: Case of Rwanda," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142734, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:umdrwp:28588

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.