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Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach

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Author Info
Costas Milas ()
Jesus Otero ()

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Abstract

We examine the long-run relationship between the parallel and the official exchange rate in Colombia over two regimes; a crawling peg period and a more flexible crawling band one. The short-run adjustment process of the parallel rate is examined both in a linear and a non-linear context. We find that the change from the crawling peg to the crawling band regime did not affect the long-run relationship between the official and parallel exchange rates, but altered the short-run dynamics. Non-linear adjustment seems appropriate for the first period, mainly due to strict foreign controls that cause distortions in the transition back to equilibrium once disequilibrium occurs.

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Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA in its series BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN with number 003231.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:col:000091:003231

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  1. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1991. "Long-run dynamics of black and official exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 392-405, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  3. Van Dijk, D. & Franses, P.H., 1997. "Nonlinear Error-Correction Models for Interest rates in the Netherlands," Papers 9704/a, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Econometric Institute.
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  4. Baghestani, Hamid & Noer, John, 1993. "Cointegration analysis of the black market and official exchange rates in India," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 709-721. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Siklos, Pierre L. & Granger, Clive W.J., 1997. "Regime-Sensitive Cointegration With An Application To Interest-Rate Parity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 640-657, September. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Kouretas, Georgios P & Zarangas, Leonidas P, 1998. "A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Parallel Foreign Exchange Markets for Dollars in Greece," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 261-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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