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Regime-Sensitive Cointegration With An Application To Interest-Rate Parity

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Author Info
SIKLOS, PIERRE L.
GRANGER, CLIVE W.J.

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Abstract

There exist a variety of reasons for the failure to find a uniquecointegrating relationship between economic time series where onewould normally be expected on the basis of economic theory. Amongthese are the testing procedure, the span of the data set, the choiceof lag length in generating the test statistic, the presence ofstructural breaks, and the presence of cointegration only beyond somethreshold. We propose the concept of regime-sensitive cointegrationwhereby the underlying series need not be cointegrated at all times.We show that cointegration can be switched off when a commonstochastic trend is added. Alternatively, cointegration can beswitched on or off because series normally believed to contain a unitactually do not. This implies that a linear combination of suchvariables need not be cointegrated. To illustrate the conceptempirically, we test the hypothesis of interest-rate parity, andrelated hypotheses, using daily Eurorates for the United States andCanada.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 1 (1997)
Issue (Month): 03 (September)
Pages: 640-657
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Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:03:p:640-657_00

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  1. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 2000-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Yann Schorderet, 2002. "A Nonlinear Generalization of Cointegration : A Note on Hidden Cointegration," Cahiers du Département d'Econométrie 2002.03, Département d'Econométrie, Université de Genève. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jesus Otero & Costas Milas, 2000. "Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach (Corrected version)," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 003232, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and dividends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 69-88. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ales Bulir, 2003. "Some Exchange Rates Are More Stable than Others; Short-Run Evidence from Transition Countries," Working Papers 2003/05, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Costas Milas & Jesus Otero, 2000. "Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 003231, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio & Wohar, Mark E, 2003. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 3983, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Aleš Bulir, 2004. "Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/35, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Maghyereh, Aktham, 2003. "Financial Liberalization and Stability Demand for Money in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Jordan," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2). [Downloadable!]
  10. Tigran Poghosyan, 2009. "Are “new” and “old” EU members becoming more financially integrated? A threshold cointegration analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 259-281, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ihle, Rico & Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von, 2008. "A Comparison of Threshold Cointegration and Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37603, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  12. Tigran Poghosyan & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Interest Rate Linkages in EMU Countries: A Rolling Threshold Vector Error-Correction Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  13. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? - A Time-varying Coefficient Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 0134, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Hugo Oliveros & Luisa Fernanda Silva, . "La Demanda por Importaciones en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 187, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  15. Goodwin, Barry K. & Piggott, Nicholas E., 1999. "Spatial Market Integration In The Presence Of Threshold Effects," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21489, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  16. Pierre Siklos, 2006. "What Can We Learn from Comprehensive Data Revisions for Forecasting Inflation: Some US Evidence," Working Papers eg0049, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006. [Downloadable!]
  17. Harper, Daniel C. & Goodwin, Barry K., 1999. "Price Transmission, Threshold Behavior, And Asymmetric Adjustment In The U.S. Pork Sector," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21666, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  18. Yann Schorderet, 2003. "Asymmetric Cointegration," Cahiers du Département d'Econométrie 2003.01, Département d'Econométrie, Université de Genève. [Downloadable!]
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