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Modeling The Behaviour of the Spot Prices of Various Types of Coffee

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  • Otero, J.G.
  • Milas, C.

Abstract

This paper investigates long-run relationships among the spot prices of four coffee types. We find two cointegrating vectors: one between the prices of Other Milds and Colombian coffee, and the other one between Unwashed Arabicas and Robustas. Following Pesaran and Shin (1996), persistence profile analysis of the two cointegrating vectors shows a rapid adjustment towards their equilibrium value. This suggests that the four coffee markets are highly related, and that discrepancies in the equilibrium relationships are short-lived. Out of sample evaluation of the model is reasonably good, except for two occasions of sharp price increases following adverse weather conditions.

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File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2008/dpaper.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 524.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:524

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Keywords: PRICING;

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References

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  1. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  2. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," ESE Discussion Papers 44, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
  6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Ben Shepherd, 2005. "Market Power in International Commodity Processing Chains: Preliminary Results from the Coffee Market," International Trade 0511013, EconWPA.
  2. Costas Milas & Jesus Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2001. "Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002737, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.

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