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Taxes, Risk-Aversion, and the Size of the Underground Economy: A Nonparametric Analysis With New Zealand Data

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  • David E. A. Giles
  • Betty J. Johnson

Abstract

We use nonparametric regression analysis to investigate the relationship between the effective tax rate and the relative size of the underground economy, using New Zealand data. The theoretical underpinnings of such a relationship are established by extending some of the predictions of the recent model of Trandel and Snow (1999) to allow for the form of the available aggregate data. Time-series evidence indicates that these data are non-stationary and cointegrated, and this is taken into account in our estimation. The theoretical framework produces an ambiguous prediction regarding the sign of the relationship we are studying. However, our nonparametric empirical analysis produces a positive and "S-shaped" relationship, and this supports earlier empirical studies that imposed such functional forms. The estimated model is used to simulate the effects of hypothetical tax changes on the size of the New Zealand underground economy, and to draw policy conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. A. Giles & Betty J. Johnson, 2000. "Taxes, Risk-Aversion, and the Size of the Underground Economy: A Nonparametric Analysis With New Zealand Data," Econometrics Working Papers 0006, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    • Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0006
    Note: ISSN 1485-6441 ; supercedes EWP9910
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    Cited by:

    1. Le, Trinh, 2007. "Does New Zealand have a household saving crisis?," NZIER Working Paper 2007/1, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.
    2. David E.A. Giles & Gugsa T. Werkneh & Betty J. Johnson, 2001. "Asymmetric Responses of the Underground Economy to Tax Changes: Evidence From New Zealand Data," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 148-159, June.
    3. Dario Cziraky & Max Gillman, 2004. "Inflation and Endogenous Growth in Underground Economies," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 50, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Karine Torosyan & Randall K. Filer, 2014. "Tax reform in Georgia and the size of the shadow economy," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 22(1), pages 179-210, January.
    5. Sandra Sookram & Patrick Kent Watson, 2008. "Small-Business Participation in the Informal Sector of an Emerging Economy," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1531-1553.
    6. Lindsay M. Tedds & David E. A. Giles, 2000. "Modelling the Underground Economies in Canada and New Zealand: A Comparative Analysis," Econometrics Working Papers 0003, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax evasion; underground economy; risk aversion; tax rates; nonparametric regression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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