Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area
AbstractThe creation of the Euro area has increased the importance of obtaining timely information about short-term changes in the area's real activity. In this paper we propose a number of alternative short-term forecasting models, ranging from simple ARIMA models to more complex cointegrated VAR and conditional models, to forecast the index of industrial production for the area is explained by the US industrial production index and the business confidence index from the European Commission harmonised survey on manufacturing firms achieves the best score in terms of forecasting capacity.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi in its series Papers with number 370.
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
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Postal: Banca d'Italia-Servizio Studi-Divisione Biblioteca e Pubblicazioni - Via N azionale, 91 -00184 Rome, Italy.
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More information through EDIRC
FORECASTS ; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION ; BUSINESS MANAGEMENT;
Other versions of this item:
- Giuseppe Parigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giorgio Bodo, 2000. "Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 541-561.
- Giorgio Bodo & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2000. "Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 370, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- M11 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Business Administration - - - Production Management
- M10 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Business Administration - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alberto Baffigi & Marcello Pagnini & Fabio Quintiliani, 1999.
"Industrial District and Local Banks: Do the Twins Ever Meet?,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
347, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Baffigi, A. & Pagnini, M. & Quintiliani, F., 1999. "Industrial Districts and Local Banks: Do the Twins Ever Meet?," Papers 347, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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