Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area
AbstractThe creation of the Euro area has increased the importance of obtaining timely information about short-term changes in the area's real activity. In this paper we propose a number of alternative short term forecasting models, ranging from simple ARIMA models to more complex cointegrated VAR and conditional models, to forecast the index of industrial production in the euro area. A conditional error-correction model in which the aggregate index of industrial production for the area is explained by the US industrial production index and the business confidence index from the European Commission harmonised survey on manufacturing firms achieves the best score in terms of forecasting capacity.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.
Volume (Year): 25 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Note: received: Jan. 2000/Final version received: March 2000
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Other versions of this item:
- Giorgio Bodo & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2000. "Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 370, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Bodo, G. & Golinelli, R. & Parigi, G., 2000. "Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area," Papers 370, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
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- Alberto Baffigi & Marcello Pagnini & Fabio Quintiliani, 1999.
"Industrial District and Local Banks: Do the Twins Ever Meet?,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
347, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Baffigi, A. & Pagnini, M. & Quintiliani, F., 1999. "Industrial Districts and Local Banks: Do the Twins Ever Meet?," Papers 347, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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