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Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area

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Author Info

  • Giuseppe Parigi

    ()
    (Research Department, Bank of Italy, Via Nazionale 91, 00184 Roma, Italy)

  • Roberto Golinelli

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Strada Maggiore 45, 40125 - Bologna, Italy http://www.spbo.unibo.it/pais/golinelli/)

  • Giorgio Bodo

    ()
    (Group Treasurer Fiat Spa, Via Nizza 250, 10126 Torino, Italy)

Abstract

The creation of the Euro area has increased the importance of obtaining timely information about short-term changes in the area's real activity. In this paper we propose a number of alternative short term forecasting models, ranging from simple ARIMA models to more complex cointegrated VAR and conditional models, to forecast the index of industrial production in the euro area. A conditional error-correction model in which the aggregate index of industrial production for the area is explained by the US industrial production index and the business confidence index from the European Commission harmonised survey on manufacturing firms achieves the best score in terms of forecasting capacity.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 25 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 541-561

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:25:y:2000:i:4:p:541-561

Note: received: Jan. 2000/Final version received: March 2000
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Related research

Keywords: Forecasts comparison · alternative models · conditional ECM;

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  1. Baffigi, A. & Pagnini, M. & Quintiliani, F., 1999. "Industrial Districts and Local Banks: Do the Twins Ever Meet?," Papers 347, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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