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World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from an emerging market

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  • Nazlioglu, Saban
  • Soytas, Ugur

Abstract

Oil prices are thought to have direct effect on agricultural prices followed by an indirect effect through the exchange rate. This paper examines the short- and long-run interdependence between world oil prices, lira-dollar exchange rate, and individual agricultural commodity prices (wheat, maize, cotton, soybeans, and sunflower) in Turkey. To this end, the Toda-Yamamoto causality approach and generalized impulse-response analysis for identification of the long- and short-run interrelationships are applied to the monthly data spanning from January 1994 to March 2010. The impulse-response analysis suggests the Turkish agricultural prices do not significantly react to oil price and exchange rate shocks in the short-run. The long-run causality analysis reveals that the changes in oil prices and appreciation/depreciation of the Turkish lira are not transmitted to agricultural commodity prices in Turkey. Hence, our results support neutrality of agricultural commodity markets in Turkey to both direct and indirect effects of oil price changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 488-496

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:33:y:2011:i:3:p:488-496

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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Keywords: Oil prices Exchange rates Agricultural commodity prices;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Papież, Monika, 2014. "A dynamic analysis of causality between prices of corn, crude oil and ethanol," MPRA Paper 56540, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Riadh Aloui & Mohamed Safouane Ben Aissa & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "A wavelet-based copula approach for modeling market risk in agricultural commodity markets," Working Papers 04, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
  3. Alghalith, Moawia & Guo, Xu & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Lixing, 2013. "Input Demand under Joint Energy and Output Prices Uncertainties," MPRA Paper 52368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
  5. Qiu, Cheng & Colson, Gregory & Escalante, Cesar & Wetzstein, Michael, 2012. "Considering macroeconomic indicators in the food before fuel nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2021-2028.
  6. Zhang, Chuanguo & Chen, Xiaoqing, 2014. "The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-41.
  7. Wang, Xiao & Zhang, Chuanguo, 2014. "The impacts of global oil price shocks on China׳s fundamental industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 394-402.
  8. Ladislav Kristoufek & Karel Janda & David Zilberman, 2012. "Mutual Responsiveness of Biofuels, Fuels and Food Prices," CAMA Working Papers 2012-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  9. Du, Xiaodong, 2012. "Inside the Black Box: the Price Linkage and Transmission between Energy and Agricultural Markets," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125146, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  10. Walid Mensi & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Seong-Min Yoon, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Working Papers 2014-160, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  11. Huang, Wen-Hsiu & Chao, Ming-Che, 2012. "The effects of oil prices on the price indices in Taiwan: International or domestic oil prices matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 730-738.
  12. Nazlioglu, Saban & Lebe, Fuat & Kayhan, Selim, 2011. "Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in OECD countries: Cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panel causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6615-6621, October.
  13. Ladislav Kristoufek & Karel Janda & David Zilberman, 2013. "Non-linear Price Transmission between Biofuels, Fuels and Food Commodities," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp481, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  14. Libo Yin & Liyan Han, 2013. "Exogenous Shocks and Information Transmission in Global Copper Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 724-751, 08.
  15. Aynur Pala, 2013. "Structural Breaks, Cointegration, and Causality by VECM Analysis of Crude Oil and Food Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 238-246.
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