Assessing the Forecast Properties of the CESifo World Economic Climate Indicator: Evidence for the Euro Area
AbstractThis paper evaluates short-term forecasts of real GDP in the Euro area derived from the CESifo Economic Climate indicator (WES) in terms of forecast accuracy. We compare the forecast properties of the WES with those of monthly composite indicators. Considering the WES is interesting because (i) it is exclusively based on the assessment of economic experts about the current economic situation, and (ii) it is timely released within the quarter on a quarterly basis. The empirical analysis is carried out under full information, which means that the competing monthly indicators are known for the entire quarter, and under incomplete information. Our findings exhibit that the forecast power of the WES is comparatively proper.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series Ifo Working Paper Series with number Ifo Working Paper No. 46.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
CESifo World Economic Survey; business-cycle forecasts; bridge models; out-of-sample forecast evaluation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
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