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Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow

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  • Martha Banbura
  • Domenico Giannone
  • Michèle Modugno
  • Lucrezia Reichlin

Abstract

The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and recently also in economics In this paper we survey recent developments on economic now-casting with special focus on those models that formalize key features of how market participants and policy makers read macroeconomic data releases in real time, which involves: monitoring many data, forming expectations about them and revising the assessment on the state of the economy whenever realizations diverge sizeably from those expectations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers ECARES with number ECARES 2012-026.

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Length: 52 p.
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by:
Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/125192

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  1. Elena Angelini & Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2010. "Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2010(1), pages 1-22.
  2. Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-time measurement of business conditions," International Finance Discussion Papers 901, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Bańbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2011. "A look into the factor model black box: Publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 333-346.
  5. Altissimo, Filippo & Bassanetti, Antonio & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3108, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
  7. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach," Working Papers 0003, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  8. Katerina Arnostova & David Havrlant & Lubos Ruzicka & Peter Toth, 2010. "Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 2010/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  9. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2010. "Maximum likelihood estimation of factor models on data sets with arbitrary pattern of missing data," Working Paper Series 1189, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Bell, Venetia & Co, Lai Wah & Stone, Sophie & Wallis, gavin`, 2014. "Nowcasting UK GDP growth," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(1), pages 58-68.
  2. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," MPRA Paper 53699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Marczak, Martyna & Gómez, Victor, 2013. "Monthly US business cycle indicators: A new multivariate approach based on a band-pass filter," FZID Discussion Papers 64-2013, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
  4. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael & Luisi, Maurizio, 2013. "Distilling the Macroeconomic News Flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9360, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Bec, F. & Mogliani, M., 2013. "Nowcasting French GDP in Real-Time from Survey Opinions: Information or Forecast Combinations?," Working papers 436, Banque de France.
  6. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  7. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Working Paper 2013/06, Norges Bank.
  8. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Paper 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  9. Keeney, Mary & Kennedy, Bernard & Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "The value of hard and soft data for short-term forecasting of GDP," Economic Letters 11/EL/12, Central Bank of Ireland.

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