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Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach

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  • Knut Are Aastveit

    ()

  • Karsten R. Gerdrup

    ()

  • Anne Sofie Jore

    ()

  • Leif Anders Thorsrud

    ()

Abstract

In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a wide selection of individual models within each model class are combined separately. Then, the nowcasts from the three model classes are combined into a single predictive density. We update the density now-cast for every new data release throughout the quarter, and highlight the importance of new information for the evaluation period 1990Q2-2010Q3. Our results show that the logarithmic score of the predictive densities for U.S. GDP increase almost monotonically as new information arrives during the quarter. While the best performing model class is changing during the quarter, the density nowcasts from our combination framework is always performing well both in terms of logarithmic scores and calibration tests. The density combination approach is superior to a simple model selection strategy and also performs better in terms of point forecast evaluation than standard point forecast combinations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School in its series Working Papers with number 0003.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0003

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Keywords: Density combination; Forecast densities; Forecast evaluation; Monetary policy; Nowcasting; Real-time data;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
  2. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Paper 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Götz Thomas B. & Hecq Alain & Urbain Jean-Pierre, 2012. "Real-Time Forecast Density Combinations (Forecasting US GDP Growth Using Mixed-Frequency Data)," Research Memoranda 021, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization.

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