Forecast Combination with Entry and Exit of Experts
Abstract
Combination of forecasts from survey data is complicated by the frequent entry and exit in real time of individual forecasters which renders conventional least squares regression approaches to estimation of the combination weights infeasible. We explore the consequences of this for a variety of forecast combination methods in common use and propose a new method that projects actual outcomes on the equal-weighted forecast as a means of adjusting for biases and noise in the underlying forecasts. Through simulations and an empirical application to inflation forecasts we show that the entry and exit of individual forecasters can have a large effect on the real time performance of conventional forecast combination methods. We also find that the proposed projection on the equal-weighted forecast works well in practice.Download Info
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Paper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2006-08.Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2006-08
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Web page: http://www.banxico.org.mx
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Related research
Keywords: Forecasting; forecast combination; inflation; surveys;Other versions of this item:
- Capistrán, Carlos & Timmermann, Allan, 2009. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 428-440.
- Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," CREATES Research Papers 2008-55, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-06-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-06-30 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2007-06-30 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2007-06-30 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2007-06-30 (Macroeconomics)
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Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Frank A.G. den Butter & Pieter W. Jansen, 2008. "Beating the Random Walk: a Performance Assessment of Long-term Interest Rate Forecasts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-102/3, Tinbergen Institute.
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