Forecast evaluation in call centers: combined forecasts, flexible loss functions and economic criteria
AbstractAccurate forecasts of incoming calls are crucial to optimal staffing decisions in call centers. This paper evaluates a wide range of models and forecast combination techniques by means of statistical and economic criteria. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. In particular, the statistical evaluation of competing models is carried out by using a flexible loss function as input to pairwise and joint forecast diagnostic checks. Informative rankings across alternative single models and different groups of models are obtained. Moreover, models are evaluated from the perspective of a manager, who needs reliable forecasts to dimension the call center. Money metrics of forecasting performance are computed, which are based on the economic value of information and the certainty equivalent.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2011-08.
Date of creation: 21 Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Combining forecasts; Decision making; Loss function; Seasonality;
Other versions of this item:
- Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2011. "Forecast Evaluation in Call Centers: Combined Forecasts, Flexible Loss Functions and Economic Criteria," UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics unimi-1109, Universitá degli Studi di Milano.
- Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2011. "Forecast Evaluation in Call Centers: Combined Forecasts, Flexible Loss Functions and Economic Criteria," Working Papers 20110301, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica.
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- Gardner, Everette Jr., 2006. "Exponential smoothing: The state of the art--Part II," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 637-666.
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