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Forecast evaluation in call centers: combined forecasts, flexible loss functions and economic criteria

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Author Info

  • Andrea BASTIANIN

    ()

  • Marzio GALEOTTI

    ()

  • Matteo MANERA

    ()

Abstract

Accurate forecasts of incoming calls are crucial to optimal staffing decisions in call centers. This paper evaluates a wide range of models and forecast combination techniques by means of statistical and economic criteria. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. In particular, the statistical evaluation of competing models is carried out by using a flexible loss function as input to pairwise and joint forecast diagnostic checks. Informative rankings across alternative single models and different groups of models are obtained. Moreover, models are evaluated from the perspective of a manager, who needs reliable forecasts to dimension the call center. Money metrics of forecasting performance are computed, which are based on the economic value of information and the certainty equivalent.

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File URL: http://wp.demm.unimi.it/tl_files/wp/2011/DEMM-2011_008wp.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2011-08.

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Date of creation: 21 Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2011-08

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Related research

Keywords: Combining forecasts; Decision making; Loss function; Seasonality;

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  1. Gardner, Everette Jr., 2006. "Exponential smoothing: The state of the art--Part II," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 637-666.
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