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Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Wallis, Kenneth F. (University of Warwick)
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This paper reviews recently proposed likelihood ratio tests of goodness-of-fit and independence of interval forecasts. It recasts them in the framework of Pearson chi-squared statistics, and extends them to density forecasts. Two further recent developments are also incorporated, namely a more informative decomposition of the goodness-of-fit statistic, and the calculation of exact P-values. Examples considered are the US Survey of Professional Forecasters density forecasts of inflation and the Bank of England fan charts. This first evaluation of the Bank forecasts finds that the fan charts fan out too quickly, and the excessive concern with the upside risks was not justified.
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Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 with number
181.
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Date of creation: 29 Aug 2002Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:181Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/society/annualconf.asp More information through EDIRC
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998.
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Other versions:
Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997.
"Evaluating density forecasts ,"
Working Papers
97-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
[Downloadable!] Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997.
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97-37, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
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[Downloadable!] Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998.
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Francis X. Diebold & Anthony S. Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 1997.
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Other versions: Michael P. Clements & Nick Taylor, 2003.
"Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 445-456.
[Downloadable!]
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F, 2004.
"Sensitivity of the Chi-Squared Goodness-of-Fit Test to the Partitioning of Data ,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
694, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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Christopher Spencer, 2006.
"The Dissent Voting Behaviour of Bank of England MPC Members ,"
Department of Economics Discussion Papers
0306, Department of Economics, University of Surrey.
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B. Siliverstovs & D.J. Van Dijk, 2003.
"Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear and structural change models ,"
Econometric Institute Report
321, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
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Other versions: Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2002.
"The performance of Setar Models: a regime conditional evaluation of point, interval and density forecasts ,"
Working Paper CRENoS
200208, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2003.
"The Performance Of Setar Models : A Regime Conditional Evaluation Of Point, Interval And Density Forecasts ,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
663, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!] Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2004.
"The performance of SETAR models: a regime conditional evaluation of point, interval and density forecasts ,"
International Journal of Forecasting ,
Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 305-320.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2008.
"How informative are macroeconomic risk forecasts? An examination of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts ,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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Marco Vega, 2004.
"Policy Makers Priors and Inflation Density Forecasts ,"
Econometrics
0403005, EconWPA.
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Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2001.
"Evaluating non-linear models on point and interval forecasts: an application with exchange rate returns ,"
Working Paper CRENoS
200110, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
[Downloadable!]
Harris, Mark & Spencer, Christopher, 2008.
"Decade of dissent: explaining the dissent voting behavior of Bank of England MPC members ,"
MPRA Paper
9100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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