AbstractIn this chapter we provide a guide for the construction, use and evaluation of leading indicators, and an assessment of the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyze the problem of indicator selection, choice of filtering methods, business cycle dating procedures to transform a continuous variable into a binary expansion/recession indicator, and methods for the construction of composite indexes. Next, we examine models and methods to transform the leading indicators into forecasts of the target variable. Finally, we consider the evaluation of the resulting leading indicator based forecasts, and review the recent literature on the forecasting performance of leading indicators.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
This chapter was published in:
This item is provided by Elsevier in its series Handbook of Economic Forecasting with number 1-16.
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/bookseriesdescription.cws_home/BS_HE/description
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- B0 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - General
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Matteo Ciccarelli & Beno�t Mojon, 2010.
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 524-535, August.
- Ciccarelli, Matteo & Mojon, Benoît, 2005. "Global inflation," Working Paper Series 0537, European Central Bank.
- Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "Global inflation," Working Paper Series WP-08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2007. "Global Inflation," Kiel Working Papers 1337, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Global Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 357, Central Bank of Chile.
- Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2012. "Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," IWH Discussion Papers 12, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
- Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007.
"A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
- Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "A Comparison of Methods for the Construction of Composite Coincident and Leading Indexes for the UK," Working Papers 590, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Owyang, Michael T. & Rapach, David E. & Wall, Howard J., 2009.
"States and the business cycle,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 181-194, March.
- Massimiliano Serati & Matteo Manera & Michele Plotegher, 2008.
"Modelling electricity prices: from the state of the art to a draft of a new proposal,"
LIUC Papers in Economics
210, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
- Matteo Manera & Massimiliano Serati & Michele Plotegher, 2008. "Modeling Electricity Prices: From the State of the Art to a Draft of a New Proposal," Working Papers 2008.9, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick & Groenen, Patrick J.F., 2011.
"Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with leading indicators: An empirical comparison,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 466-481, April.
- Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick & Groenen, Patrick J.F., 2011. "Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with leading indicators: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 466-481.
- Travaglini, Guido, 2011. "Climate change: where is the hockey stick? evidence from millennial-scale reconstructed and updated temperature time series," MPRA Paper 35565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer & Gonul Sengul & Arzu Yavuz, 2014.
"A Quest for Leading Indicators of the Turkish Unemployment Rate,"
Central Bank Review,
Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(1), pages 23-45.
- H. Burcu Gurcihan & Gonul Sengul & Arzu Yavuz, 2013. "A Quest for Leading Indicators of the Turkish Unemployment Rate," Working Papers 1341, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting: An Illustration with German Industrial Production and Linear Models," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 57, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.