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A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK

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  • Carriero, Andrea
  • Marcellino, Massimiliano

Abstract

In this paper we provide an overview of recent developments in the methodology for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes, and apply them to the UK. In particular, we evaluate the relative merits of factor based models and Markov switching specifications for the construction of coincident and leading indexes. For the leading indexes we also evaluate the performance of probit models and pooling. The results indicate that alternative methods produce similar coincident indexes, while there are more marked di.erences in the leading indexes.
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  • Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:23:y:2007:i:2:p:219-236
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    6. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Monitoring the Economy of the Euro Area: A Comparison of Composite Coincident Indexes," Working Papers 319, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    7. Shirly Siew-Ling WONG & Chin-Hong PUAH & Shazali ABU MANSOR & Venus Khim-Sen LIEW, 2016. "Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor To Economic Crises," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(4), pages 235-248.
    8. Heij, C., 2007. "Improved forecasting with leading indicators: the principal covariate index," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-23, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. Cecilia Frale & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Tommaso Proietti, 2008. "A Monthly Indicator of the Euro Area GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/32, European University Institute.
    10. Jason Angelopoulos & Costas I. Chlomoudis, 2017. "A Generalized Dynamic Factor Model for the U.S. Port Sector," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 67(1), pages 22-37, January-M.
    11. Javier Maldonado & Esther Ruiz, 2021. "Accurate Confidence Regions for Principal Components Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(6), pages 1432-1453, December.
    12. Fichtner, Ferdinand & Rüffer, Rasmus & Schnatz, Bernd, 2009. "Leading indicators in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 1125, European Central Bank.
    13. Schnatz, Bernd & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2012. "Survey-based nowcasting of US growth: a real-time forecast comparison over more than 40 years," Working Paper Series 1455, European Central Bank.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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