A continuous monitoring of the evolution of the economy is fundamental for the decisions of public and private decision makers. This paper proposes a new monthly indicator of the euro area real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with several original features. First, it considers both the output side (six branches of the NACE classification) and the expenditure side (the main GDP components) and combines the two estimates with optimal weights reflecting their relative precision. Second, the indicator is based on information at both the monthly and quarterly level, modelled with a dynamic factor specification cast in state-space form. Third, since estimation of the multivariate dynamic factor model can be numerically complex, computational efficiency is achieved by implementing univariate filtering and smoothing procedures. Finally, special attention is paid to chain-linking and its implications, via a multistep procedure that exploits the additivity of the volume measures expressed at the prices of the previous year.
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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number
7007.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
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