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Ñ-STING: España Short Term INdicator of Growth

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Author Info
Maximo Camacho () (Universidad de Murcia)
Gabriel Perez-Quiros () (Banco de España)

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Abstract

We develop a dynamic factor model to compute short term forecasts of the Spanish GDP growth in real time. With this model, we compute a business cycle index which works well as an indicator of the business cycle conditions in Spain. To examine its real time forecasting accuracy, we use real-time data vintages from 2008.02 through 2009.01. We conclude that the model exhibits good forecasting performance in anticipating the recent and sudden downturn.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/09/Fic/dt0912e.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, June 2009
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banco de España in its series Banco de España Working Papers with number 0912.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0912

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Related research
Keywords: Business Cycles; Output Growth; Time Series;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443. [Downloadable!]
  2. Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Are more data always better for factor analysis?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 169-194, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2008. "Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 304-317, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2006. "Dynamic factor analysis with non-linear temporal aggregation constraints," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(2), pages 281-300. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box - publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-10.

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