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A random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series

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Robert B. Litterman

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Abstract

This paper describes a technique for distributing quarterly time series across monthly values. The method generalizes an approach described by Fernandez (1981). The paper also presents results of a test of the accuracy of these two approaches and two standard procedures suggested by Chow and Lin (1971).

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 84.

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Date of creation: 1983
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:84

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  1. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-76, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Aristei & Luca Pieroni, 2005. "Estimating the Role of Government Expenditure in Long-run Consumption," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 13/2005, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ayoub Yousefi, 2000. "Merchandise Trade Balances of Less Developed Countries and Exchange Rate of the U.S. Dollar: Cases of Iran, Venezuela & Saudi Arabia," Working Papers 00002, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2000. [Downloadable!]
  3. José Manuel Pavía, 2000. "Desagregación conjunta de series anuales: perturbaciones AR(1) multivariante," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 24(3), pages 727-737, September. [Downloadable!]
  4. Palm, F.C. & Nijman, Th., 1984. "Consistent estimation using proxy-variables in models with unobserved variables," Serie Research Memoranda 0012, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Curran, Declan & Funke, Michael, 2006. "Taking the temperature – forecasting GDP growth for mainland China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Temporal Disaggregation by State Space Methods: Dynamic Regression Methods Revisited," Econometrics 0411011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. D. Aristei & Luca Pieroni, 2008. "Cointegration Rank Test and Long Run Specification: A Note on the Robustness of Structural Demand Systems," Discussion Papers 0809, University of the West of England, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. C. Baumeister & G. Peersman, 2008. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/515, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  9. Frale, Cecilia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mazzi, Gian Luigi & Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "A Monthly Indicator of the Euro Area GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 7007, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Christian Müller, 2006. "Testing Temporal Disaggregation," KOF Working papers 06-134, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  11. Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "On the Estimation of Nonlinearly Aggregated Mixed Models," Econometrics 0411012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael K. Salemi, 1984. "Real Economic Activity In Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 120(IV), pages 521-546, December. [Downloadable!]
  13. Nicolas A. Cuche & Martin K. Hess, 1999. "Estimating Monthly GDP In A General Kalman Filter Framework: Evidence From Switzerland," Working Papers 99.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
  14. Elisa Keller, 2007. "Classical and Bayesian Methods for the VAR Analysis: International Comparisons," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 97(6), pages 149-202, November-. [Downloadable!]
  15. Cecilia Frale & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Tommaso Proietti, 2009. "Survey Data as Coicident or Leading Indicators," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/19, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Richard M. Todd, 1988. "Implementing Bayesian vector autoregressions," Working Papers 384, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  17. Viv Hall & John McDermott, 2007. "A Quarterly Post-World War II Real GDP Series for New Zealand," Working Papers 07_13, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
  18. Alejandro Rodríguez Caro & Santiago Rodríguez Feijoo & Delia Dávila Quintana, 2003. "La trimestralización de variables flujo. Un estudio de simulación de los métodos de desagregación temporal con indicador," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2003-01, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC. [Downloadable!]
  19. Theodore E. Nijman & Franz C. Palm, 1988. "Consistent Estimation of Regression Models with Incompletely Observed Exogenous Variables," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 12, pages 07, Octobre-D. [Downloadable!]
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