Macro modelling with many models
AbstractWe argue that the next generation of macro modellers at Inflation Targeting central banks should adapt a methodology from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model specifications (e.g., initial conditions, parameters, and boundary conditions) is explicitly accounted for by constructing ensemble predictive densities from a large number of component models. The components allow the modeller to explore a wide range of uncertainties; and the resulting ensemble `integrates out' these uncertainties using time-varying weights on the components. We provide two examples of this modelling strategy: (i) forecasting inflation with a disaggregate ensemble; and (ii) forecasting inflation with an ensemble DSGE.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2009/15.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 17 Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Note: First version:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postboks 1179 Sentrum, 0107 Oslo
Phone: +47 22 31 60 00
Fax: +47 22 41 31 05
Web page: http://www.norges-bank.no/
More information through EDIRC
Ensemble modelling; Forecasting; DSGE models; Density combination;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-08-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-08-30 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2009-08-30 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-ECM-2009-08-30 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2009-08-30 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2009-08-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-08-30 (Monetary Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Miladin Kovačević & Stojan Stamenković, 2010. "Methodological Basis for Macroeconomic Projections in Countries Exposed to Pressures and Shocks: Example of Serbia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(2), pages 225-243, June.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P Vahey, 2010. "Measuring Core Inflation in Australia with Disaggregate Ensembles," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2011.
"Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty,"
CAMA Working Papers
2011-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2009.
"Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0910, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P. & Wakerly, Elizabeth C., 2011. "Real-time inflation forecast densities from ensemble Phillips curves," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 77-87, January.
- Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2010. "Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves," CAMA Working Papers 2010-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Chris McDonald & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Evaluating density forecasts: model combination strategies versus the RBNZ," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.