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On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation

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Andrew J. Patton

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Abstract

Recent studies in the empirical finance literature have reported evidence of two types of asymmetries in the joint distribution of stock returns. The first is skewness in the distribution of individual stock returns. The second is an asymmetry in the dependence between stocks: stock returns appear to be more highly correlated during market downturns than during market upturns. In this article we examine the economic and statistical significance of these asymmetries for asset allocation decisions in an out-of-sample setting. We consider the problem of a constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) investor allocating wealth between the risk-free asset, a small-cap portfolio, and a large-cap portfolio. We use models that can capture time-varying moments up to the fourth order, and we use copula theory to construct models of the time-varying dependence structure that allow for different dependence during bear markets than bull markets. The importance of these two asymmetries for asset allocation is assessed by comparing the performance of a portfolio based on a normal distribution model with a portfolio based on a more flexible distribution model. For investors with no short-sales constraints, we find that knowledge of higher moments and asymmetric dependence leads to gains that are economically significant and statistically significant in some cases. For short sales-constrained investors the gains are limited. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbh006
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Journal of Financial Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 2 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 130-168
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Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:2:y:2004:i:1:p:130-168

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  1. Xiaohong Chen & Yanqin Fan, 2002. "Estimation of Copula-Based Semiparametric Time Series Models," Working Papers 0226, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andrew Patton, 2001. "Estimation of Copula Models for Time Series of Possibly Different Length," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-17, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chollete, Lorán & Heinen, Andreas, 2006. "Frequent Turbulence? A Dynamic Copula Approach," Discussion Papers 2006/10, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  4. Chollete, Loran & Pena, Victor de la & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2009. "International Diversification: A Copula Approach," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/27, University of Stavanger. [Downloadable!]
  5. Xiaohong Chen & Yanqin Fan & Victor Tsyrennifov, 2002. "Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Multivariate Copula Models," Working Papers 0420, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Sep 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Manner, Hans, 2007. "Estimation and Model Selection of Copulas with an Application to Exchange Rates," Research Memoranda 056, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jeroen Rombouts & E.W. Rengifo, 2004. "Dynamic Optimal Portfolio Selection in a VaR Framework," Cahiers de recherche 04-05, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Maximilian Vermorken & Ariane Szafarz & Hugues Pirotte, 2008. "Sector Classification through non-Gaussian Similarity," Working Papers CEB 08-032.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
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  9. René Garcia & Georges Tsafack, 2009. "Dependence Structure and Extreme Comovements in International Equity and Bond Markets," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-21, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  10. Rob van den Goorbergh, 2004. "A Copula-Based Autoregressive Conditional Dependence Model of International Stock Markets," DNB Working Papers 022, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Susan Thorp & George Milunovich, 2005. "Asymmetric Risk and International Portfolio Choice," Research Paper Series 160, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  12. Chollete, Lorán & Heinen, Andréas & Valdesogo, Alfonso, 2008. "Modeling International Financial Returns with a Multivariate Regime Switching Copula," Discussion Papers 2008/3, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Vargas, Gregorio A., 2006. "An Asymmetric Block Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH Model," MPRA Paper 189, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
  14. Oriol Roch Casellas & Antonio Alegre Escolano, 2005. "Testing the bivariate distribution of daily equity returns using copulas. An application to the Spanish stock market," Working Papers in Economics 143, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
  15. Yanqin Fan & Xiaohong Chen, 2004. "Estimation of Copula-Based Semiparametric Time Series Models," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 559, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  16. Onour, Ibrahim, 2009. "Natural Gas markets:How Sensitive to Crude Oil Price Changes?," MPRA Paper 14937, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  17. Onour, Ibrahim, 2008. "Forward-Looking Beta Estimates:Evidence from an Emerging Market," MPRA Paper 14992, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  18. Xiaohong Chen & Yanqin Fan, 2004. "Estimation and Model Selection of Semiparametric Copula-Based Multivariate Dynamic Models under Copula Misspecification," Working Papers 0419, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Sep 2004. [Downloadable!]
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