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Is Time-Series-Based Predictability Evident in Real Time?

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  • Michael Cooper

    (Purdue University)

  • Huseyin Gulen

    (Virginia Tech)

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    Abstract

    We show that out-of-sample tests used in the time-series predictability literature may suffer from test size problems related to the common practice of exogenous specification of critical parameters, such as the choice of predictive variables, traded assets, and in-sample estimation periods. We perform specification searches across these parameters and find that rejections of the null hypothesis of no predictability are very sensitive to minor variations in parameter specification. We perform simulations to determine if the observed predictability in the data is real. The simulations suggest that much of the literature's out-of-sample evidence of time-series-based predictability is consistent with data snooping.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

    Volume (Year): 79 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 (May)
    Pages: 1263-1292

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    Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:79:y:2006:i:3:p:1263-1292

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    Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JB/

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    Cited by:
    1. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
    2. Han, Yufeng, 2012. "State uncertainty in stock markets: How big is the impact on the cost of equity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2575-2592.
    3. Barras, Laurent, 2007. "International conditional asset allocation under specification uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 443-464, September.
    4. Fang, Jiali & Jacobsen, Ben & Qin, Yafeng, 2014. "Predictability of the simple technical trading rules: An out-of-sample test," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 30-45.

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