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Conditional Dependency of Financial Series: An Application of Copulas

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Author Info
Rockinger, M.
Jondeau, E.
Abstract

We develop a new methodology that measures conditional dependency. We achieve this by using copula functions that link marginal distributions, here chosen to obey a GARCH-type model with time-varying skewness and kurtosis. We apply this model to daily returns of stock-market indices. We find strong evidence of persistence in dependency both for local currency and $ US denominated series. For European stock markets, we also find evidence that large simultaneous returns of either sign lead to higher subsequent dependency. We show that dependency changes through time, as well. For stock markets within Europe, dependency increased whereas it decreased since the mid 90s when involving the S&P 500 or the Nikkei. We also suggest extensions for conditional asset pricing models involving time variation of co-skewness and co-kurtosis.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Documents de Travail with number 82.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:82

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Related research
Keywords: International correlation ; Market integration ; ARCH; Stock indices.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-30, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(04), pages 465-487, December. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni, 1985. "Arbitrage Equilibrium with Skewed Asset Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 299-313, September. [Downloadable!]
  7. Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
  8. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2001. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model to Test for Predictability and Integration in the Stock Markets of Transition Economies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 73-84, January.
  9. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1992. "Qualitative threshold ARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 159-199. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Bera, Anil K & Higgins, Matthew L, 1993. " ARCH Models: Properties, Estimation and Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 305-66, December.
  11. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Terry A. Marsh & Niklas Wagner, 2004. "Return-Volume Dependence and Extremes in International Equity Markets," Finance 0401007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  16. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 1999. "CAViaR: Conditional Value at Risk by Quantile Regression," NBER Working Papers 7341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Tse, Y. K., 2000. "A test for constant correlations in a multivariate GARCH model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 107-127, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrew Patton, 2001. "Estimation of Copula Models for Time Series of Possibly Different Length," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-17, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  2. Anthony S. Tay & Aamir R. Hashmi, 2004. "Global and Regional Sources of Risk in Equity Markets: Evidence from Factor Models with Time-Varying Conditional Skewness," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 634, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Claudio Morana, 2008. "International stock markets comovements: the role of economic and financial integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 333-359, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Estimation of multivariate models for time series of possibly different lengths," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 147-173. [Downloadable!]
  5. Markus Junker & Alexander Szimayer & Niklas Wagner, 2004. "Nonlinear Term Structure Dependence: Copula Functions, Empirics, and Risk Implications," Econometrics 0401007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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