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Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the Predictability of Stock Returns

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Aiolfi, Marco
Favero, Carlo A

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Abstract

Recent financial research has provided evidence on the predictability of asset returns. In this Paper we consider the results contained in Pesaran-Timmerman (1995), which provided evidence on predictability of excess returns in the US stock market over the sample 1959-92. We show that the extension of the sample to the nineties weakens considerably the statistical and economic significance of the predictability of stock returns based on earlier data. We propose an extension of their framework, based on the explicit consideration of model uncertainty under rich parameterizations for the predictive models. We propose a novel methodology to deal with model uncertainty based on ‘thick’ modelling, i.e. considering a multiplicity of predictive models rather than a single predictive model. We show that portfolio allocations based on a thick modeling strategy systematically outperform thin modelling.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3997.

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Date of creation: Aug 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3997

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Ait-Sahalia, Y. & Brandt, M.W., 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," Papers 34, Manitoba - Department of Economics.
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  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1995. "Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Other versions:
  5. Clive Granger & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Data mining with local model specification uncertainty: a discussion of Hoover and Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 220-225.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pedro N. Rodríguez, & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Forecasting Stock Price Changes: Is it Possible?," Working Papers 2006-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Coe, P.J. & Pesaran, M.H. & Vahey, S.P., 2003. "Scope for Cost Minimization in Public Debt Management: the Case of the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0338, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," IZA Discussion Papers 1108, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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