Optimal Forecast Combination Under General Loss Functions and Forecast Error Distributions
AbstractExisting results on the properties and performance of forecast combinations have been derived in the context of mean squared error loss. Under this loss function empirical studies have generally found that estimates of optimal forecast combination weights lead to higher losses than equally-weighted combined forecasts which in turn outperform the best individual predictions. We show that this and other results can be overturned when asymmetries are introduced in the loss function and the forecast error distribution is skewed. We characterize the optimal combination weights for the most commonly used alternatives to mean squared error loss and demonstrate how the degree of asymmetry in the loss function and skews in the underlying forecast error distribution can significantly change the optimal combination weights. We also propose estimation methods and investigate their small sample properties in simulations and in an inflation forecasting exercise.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number qt15r9t2q2.
Date of creation: 29 Apr 2002
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
Phone: (858) 534-3383
Fax: (858) 534-7040
Web page: http://www.escholarship.org/repec/ucsdecon/
More information through EDIRC
Forecast Error Distributions;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002.
"Forecast Pooling for Short Time Series of Macroeconomic Variables,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Forecast pooling for short time series of macroeconomic variables," Working Papers 212, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
- Palm, Franz C. & Zellner, Arnold, 1992.
"To combine or not to combine? Issues of combining forecasts,"
Open Access publications from Maastricht University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-6018, Maastricht University.
- PALM, Franz C. & ZELLNER, Arnold, . "To Combine or not to Combine? Issues of Combining Forecasts," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1027, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Palm, F. & Zellner, A., 1991. "To combine or not to combine? issues of combining forecasts," CORE Discussion Papers 1991022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996.
"Forecast Evaluation and Combination,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 2001.
"Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities,"
Working Paper Series
0058, European Central Bank.
- Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: Evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 259-306, July.
- Allan Timmermann & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Business Cycle Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Evidence from Higher Order Moments and Conditional Densities," FMG Discussion Papers dp360, Financial Markets Group.
- Perez-Quiros, G. & Timmermann, A., 2001. "Business Cycle Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Evidence from Higher Order Moments and Conditional Densities," Papers 58, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- Min, Chung-ki & Zellner, Arnold, 1993.
"Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for combining models and forecasts with applications to forecasting international growth rates,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 89-118, March.
- Min, C.K. & Zellner, A., 1992. ""Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Methods for Combining Models and Forecasts with Applications to Forecasting International Growth Rates"," Papers 90-92-23, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Newey, Whitney K & Powell, James L, 1987. "Asymmetric Least Squares Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 819-47, July.
- A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 1998. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," FMG Discussion Papers dp306, Financial Markets Group.
- David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias In Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318, February.
- Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1993.
"A utility based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
441, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- West, Kenneth D. & Edison, Hali J. & Cho, Dongchul, 1993. "A utility-based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 23-45, August.
- Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1992. "A Utility Based Comparison of Some Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Technical Working Papers 0128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Weiss, Andrew A, 1996. "Estimating Time Series Models Using the Relevant Cost Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 539-60, Sept.-Oct.
- Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society.
- Diebold, Francis X, 1988. "Serial Correlation and the Combination of Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(1), pages 105-11, January.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Clive W.J. Granger, 1999. "Outline of forecast theory using generalized cost functions," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 161-173.
- Yeung Lewis Chan & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "A dynamic factor model framework for forecast combination," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 91-121.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.