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Earnings forecasts and the predictability of stock returns: evidence from trading the S&P

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Author Info

  • Joel Lander
  • Athanasios Orphanides
  • Martha Douvogiannis

Abstract

We develop a simple error-correction model, based on a well-known theory, espoused by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd and others, which presumes stock returns tend to restore an equilibrium relationship between the forecasted earnings yield on common stocks and the yield on bonds. The estimation uses I/B/E/S analysts forecasts of S&P earnings. To evaluate the model, we use rolling regressions to obtain out-of-sample forecasts of excess returns. Tests of association show the implicit timing signals to be statistically significant. Further, a strategy of investing in cash, when the excess return forecast is negative, and investing in the S&P, when the excess return forecast is positive, outperforms the S&P with higher returns and smaller volatility. Using the bootstrap methodology, we demonstrate that the findings are statistically significant.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1997-6.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1997-6

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Related research

Keywords: Forecasting ; Stocks;

References

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  1. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
  2. Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  3. Josef Lakonishok & Robert W. Vishny & Andrei Shleifer, 1993. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," NBER Working Papers 4360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Durré, Alain & Giot, Pierre, 2005. "An international analysis of earnings, stock prices and bond yields," Working Paper Series 0515, European Central Bank.
  2. Terenzio Cozzi, 2005. "A reappraisal of Modigliani's finance theories," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 215-235.
  3. Christophe Faugere & Julian Van Erlach, 2003. "A General Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Return," Finance 0311005, EconWPA, revised 17 May 2004.
  4. : Arie E. Gozluklu, 2012. "Inflation, Stock Market and Long-Term Investors: Real Effects of Changing Demographics," Working Papers wpn12-06, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  5. Marco Aiolfi & Carlo Ambrogio Favero, . "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the predictability of Stock Returns," Working Papers 221, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  6. Giot, Pierre & Petitjean, Mikael, 2007. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: Better than a random walk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 289-305.
  7. Terenzio Cozzi, 2005. "Una rivisitazione delle teorie di Modigliani sulla finanza," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 58(230-231), pages 233-254.
  8. Terenzio Cozzi, 2005. "A reappraisal of Modigliani's finance theories," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 215-235.
  9. :Carol A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Andrea Tamoni, 2009. "Long-Run Factors and Fluctuations in Dividend/Price," Working Papers wpn09-04, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  10. : Carlo A. Favero & : Arie E. Gozluklu & : Haoxi Yang, 2013. "Demographics and The Behavior of Interest Rates," Working Papers wpn13-10, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  11. Christophe, Faugere, 2003. "A Required Yield Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Treasury Yield Determination," MPRA Paper 15579, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Jun 2009.
  12. Pu Shen, 2002. "Market timing strategies that worked," Research Working Paper RWP 02-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  13. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra & Favero, Carlo A., 2005. "Explaining co-movements between stock markets: The case of US and Germany," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1299-1316, December.
  14. Eduardo Walker, 1998. "Mercado Accionario y Crecimiento Económico en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 35(104), pages 49-72.
  15. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2012. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1176-1187.

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