A Models Selection Approach to Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks
AbstractWe take a model selection approach to real-time macroeconomic forecasting using linear and nonlinear models. True ex-ante forecasting are constructed by using unrevised as opposed to fully revised data. Model selection as well as model performance measures are considered.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics in its series Papers with number 04-95-12.
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, UNIVERSITY PARK PENNSYLVANIA 16802 U.S.A.
Web page: http://econ.la.psu.edu/
More information through EDIRC
MACROECONOMICS; ECONOMIC FORECASTING;
Other versions of this item:
- Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1997. "A Model Selection Approach To Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models And Artificial Neural Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 540-550, November.
- Norman R. Swanson & Halbert White, 1995. "A Model Selection Approach to Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Macroeconomics 9503004, EconWPA.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1994.
"Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance,"
NBER Working Papers
3965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1993. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 11-94 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1989. "Forecasting output with the composite leading index: an ex ante analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 90, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
- Leitch, Gordon & Tanner, J Ernest, 1991. "Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits versus the Conventional Error Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 580-90, June.
- Chung-Ming Kuan, 2006. "Artificial Neural Networks," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 06-A010, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Bruce Mizrach, 1996. "Forecast Comparison in L2," Departmental Working Papers 199524, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-33, October.
- Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988.
" Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-48, September.
- Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
- Swanson, Norman R & White, Halbert, 1995. "A Model-Selection Approach to Assessing the Information in the Term Structure Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 265-75, July.
- Sawa, Takamitsu, 1978. "Information Criteria for Discriminating among Alternative Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1273-91, November.
- Keane, Michael & Runkle, David E, 1995. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 290, March.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1993. "Strategies for Modelling Nonlinear Time-Series Relationships," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(206), pages 233-38, September.
- Stekler, H. O., 1991. "Macroeconomic forecast evaluation techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 375-384, November.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.