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Evaluating density forecasts: model combination strategies versus the RBNZ

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Abstract

Forecasting the future path of the economy is essential for good monetary policy decisions. The recent financial crisis has highlighted the importance of tail events, and that assessing the central projection is not enough. The whole range of outcomes should be forecasted, evaluated and accounted for when making monetary policy decisions. As such, we construct density fore- casts using the historical performance of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) published point forecasts. We compare these implied RBNZ den- sities to similarly constructed densities from a suite of empirical models. In particular, we compare the implied RBNZ densities to combinations of density forecasts from the models. Our results reveal that the combined den- sities are comparable in performance and sometimes better than the implied RBNZ densities across many di erent horizons and variables. We also find that the combination strategies typically perform better than relying on the best model in real-time, that is the selection strategy.

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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2011/03.

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Length: 36 p.
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2011/03

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  1. Bloor, Chris & Matheson, Troy, 2011. "Real-time conditional forecasts with Bayesian VARs: An application to New Zealand," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 26-42, January.
  2. Diebold, Francis X. & Pauly, Peter, 1990. "The use of prior information in forecast combination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 503-508, December.
  3. Jana Eklund & Sune Karlsson, 2007. "Forecast Combination and Model Averaging Using Predictive Measures," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 329-363.
  4. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
  5. repec:nsr:niesrd:337 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Ida Wolden Bache & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Macro modelling with many models," Working Paper 2009/15, Norges Bank.
  7. Aiolfi, Marco & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 31-53.
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Cited by:
  1. Paulo M. Sánchez & Luis Fernando Melo, 2013. "Combinación de brechas del producto colombiano," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  2. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  3. Sarah Drought & Chris McDonald, 2011. "Forecasting house price inflation: a model combination approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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