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Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time

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  • Rusnák, Marek

Abstract

In this paper, we employ a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) to nowcast Czech GDP. Using multiple vintages of historical data and taking into account the publication lags of various monthly indicators, we evaluate the real-time performance of the DFM over the 2005–2012 period. The main result of this paper is that the accuracy of model-based nowcasts is comparable to that of the nowcasts of the Czech National Bank (CNB). Moreover, combining the DFM and the CNB nowcasts results in more accurate performance than in the case of the individual nowcasts alone. Our results also suggest that foreign variables are crucial for the accuracy of the model, while omitting financial and confidence indicators does not worsen the nowcasting performance.

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  • Rusnák, Marek, 2016. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:54:y:2016:i:c:p:26-39
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.12.010
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    3. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    6. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
    7. Vaclav Broz & Dominika Kolcunova & Simona Malovana & Lukas Pfeifer, 2018. "Risk-Sensitive Capital Regulation," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 16, number rb16/1 edited by Simona Malovana & Jan Frait, January.
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    10. Miroslav Plasil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac & Volha Audzei & Jakub Mateju & Michal Kejak & Simona Malovana & Jan Frait, 2016. "Financial Cycles and Macroprudential and Monetary Policies," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 14, number rb14/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Hlavacek, January.
    11. Hwee Kwan Chow & Yijie Fei & Daniel Han, 2023. "Forecasting GDP with many predictors in a small open economy: forecast or information pooling?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 805-829, August.
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    14. Porshakov, A. & Ponomarenko, A. & Sinyakov, A., 2016. "Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecasting of Russian GDP with a Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 60-76.
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    17. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner & Julia Woerz & Marcel Tirpak & Peter Toth, 2015. "Small-scale nowcasting models of GDP for selected CESEE countries," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2015, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    18. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky & Jaromir Tonner & Stanislav Tvrz & Osvald Vasicek & Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak & Lubomir Lizal & Diana Zigraiova, 2016. "Topics in Labour Markets," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 14, number rb14/1 edited by Jan Babecky, January.
    19. Davor Kunovac & Borna Špalat, 2014. "Nowcasting GDP Using Available Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 39, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    20. Wegmüller, Philipp & Glocker, Christian & Guggia, Valentino, 2023. "Weekly economic activity: Measurement and informational content," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 228-243.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic factor model; GDP; Nowcasting; Real-time data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

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