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Now-casting and the real-time data flow

Author

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  • Reichlin, Lucrezia
  • Giannone, Domenico
  • Modugno, Michele
  • Banbura, Marta

Abstract

The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and recently also in economics In this paper we survey recent developments on economic now-casting with special focus on those models that formalize key features of how market participants and policy makers read macroeconomic data releases in real time, which involves: monitoring many data, forming expectations about them and revising the assessment on the state of the economy whenever realizations diverge sizeably from those expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9112
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    Keywords

    Dynamic factor model; High-dimensional data; Macroeconomic forecasting; Macroeconomic news; Mixed-frequency; Real-time data; State-space models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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