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Nowcasting Norwegian GDP: The role of asset prices in a small open economy

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Author Info

  • Knut Are Aastveit

    ()
    (University of Oslo and Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Tørres G. Trovik

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

Abstract

This paper finds that asset prices on Oslo Stock Exchange is the single most important block of data to improve estimates of current quarter GDP in Norway. Other important blocks of data are labor market data and industrial production indicators. We use an approximate dynamic factor model that is able to handle new information as it is released, thus the marginal impact on mean square nowcasting error can be studied for a large number of variables. We use a panel of 148 non-synchronous variables covering a broad spectrum of the Norwegian economy. The strong impact from financial data is due to an ability of the market clearing process to impart information about the real activity in Norway in a timely manner.

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File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2007/WP-20079/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2007/09.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 11 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2007_09

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Keywords: Forecasting; financial markets; economic growth; small open economy;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze & G. Rünstler, 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets – A pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working Paper Research 133, National Bank of Belgium.
  2. Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Nowcasting," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-021, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
  4. Boriss Siliverstovs & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2010. "Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland," KOF Working papers 10-251, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  5. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  6. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
  7. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Christie Smith, 2010. "Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?," Working Papers 0002, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  8. Martinsen, Kjetil & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Wulfsberg, Fredrik, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 65-77.

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