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News and Business Cycles in Open Economies

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  • Nir Jaimovich

    ()
    (Economics Department, Stanford Univerity)

  • Sergio Rebelo

    (Northwestern University)

Abstract

It is well known that the neoclassical model does not generate comovement among macroeconomic aggregates in response to news about future total factor productivity. We show that this problem is generally more severe in open economy versions of the neoclassical model. We present an open economy model that generates comovement both in response to sudden stops and to news about future productivity and investment-specific technical change. We find that comovement is easier to generate in the presence of weak short-run wealth effects on the labor supply, adjustment costs to labor, and/or investment, and whenever the real interest rate faced by the economy rises with the level of net foreign debt.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in its series Discussion Papers with number 07-016.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:sip:dpaper:07-016

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Keywords: business cycles; neoclassical model; future total factor productivity; open economy;

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  1. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Staff Report 335, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," 2006 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Janice Eberly & Sergio Rebelo & Nicolas Vincent, 2008. "Investment and Value: A Neoclassical Benchmark," NBER Working Papers 13866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard, 2006. "Gold rush fever in business cycles," 2006 Meeting Papers 8, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher Gust & Jorge Roldos, 2002. "Monetary Policy in a Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 9005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  7. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June.
  8. Robert J. Barro & Robert G. King, 1982. "Time-Separable Preference and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 0888, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  11. Wouter J. Denhaan & Georg Kaltenbrunner, 2005. "Growth Expectations and Business Cycles," 2005 Meeting Papers 29, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
  13. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-44, December.
  14. V.V. Chari & Patrick Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2005. "Sudden Stops and Output Drops," NBER Working Papers 11133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
  16. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  17. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Sudden Stops in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model with Credit Constraints: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q," 2005 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. Franck Portier & Paul Beaudry, 2004. "When Can Changes in Expectations Cause Business Cycle Fluctuations?," 2004 Meeting Papers 865, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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