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A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models

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Author Info
Doz, Catherine
Giannone, Domenico
Reichlin, Lucrezia

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Abstract

This paper considers quasi-maximum likelihood estimations of a dynamic approximate factor model when the panel of time series is large. Maximum likelihood is analyzed under different sources of misspecification: omitted serial correlation of the observations and cross-sectional correlation of the idiosyncratic components. It is shown that the effects of misspecification on the estimation of the common factors is negligible for large sample size (T) and the cross-sectional dimension (n). The estimator is feasible when n is large and easily implementable using the Kalman smoother and the EM algorithm as in traditional factor analysis. Simulation results illustrate what are the empirical conditions in which we can expect improvement with respect to simple principle components considered by Bai (2003), Bai and Ng (2002), Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Reichlin (2000, 2005b), Stock and Watson (2002a,b).

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5724.

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Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5724

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Related research
Keywords: factor model large cross-sections Quasi Maximum Likelihood

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, . "Monetary Policy in Real Time," Working Papers 284, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2001. "Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the US," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 109-134, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2006. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 12772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Danny Quah & Thomas J. Sargent, 1992. "A dynamic index model for large cross sections," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 77, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," CEPR Discussion Papers 5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
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  12. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1993. " A Test for the Number of Factors in an Approximate Factor Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1263-91, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "A Two-Step Estimator for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models Based on Kalman Filtering," CEPR Discussion Papers 6043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Global inflation," Working Paper Series 537, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. David F. Hendry & Kirstin Hubrich, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?," NBER Working Papers 14190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "A Two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," THEMA Working Papers 2006-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. D'Agostino, A & Surico, P, 2007. "Does global liquidity help to forecast US inflation?," MPRA Paper 6283, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Review of Nonfundamentalness and Identification in Structural VAR Models," LEM Papers Series 2007/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  10. Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box - publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 751, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2008. "Likelihood-based Analysis for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-007/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  12. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2006. "Dynamic Factor GARCH: Multivariate Volatility Forecast for a Large Number of Series," LEM Papers Series 2006/25, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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