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A dynamic index model for large cross sections

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Author Info
Danny Quah
Thomas J. Sargent

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Abstract

This paper shows how standard methods can be used to formulate and estimate a dynamic index model for random fields—stochastic processes indexed by time and cross section where the time-series and cross-section dimensions are comparable in magnitude. We use these to study dynamic comovements of sectoral employment in the U.S. economy. The dynamics of employment in sixty sectors is well explained using only two unobservable factors; those factors are also strongly correlated with GNP growth.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics with number 77.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:77

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Keywords: Econometric models;

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  1. Grace H.Y. Lee, 2009. "Aggregate Shocks Decomposition For Eight East Asian Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 17/09, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "A Parametric Estimation Method for Dynamic Factor Models of Large Dimensions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5620, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "Factor Models in Large Cross-Sections of Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 3285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Paul D. Gilbert & Lise Pichette, 2003. "Dynamic Factor Analysis for Measuring Money," Working Papers 03-21, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Massimiliano Marcellino & George Kapetanios, 2006. "The Role of Search Frictions and Bargaining for Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 305, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Todd E. Clark, 2003. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 03-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Impulse Response Functions from Structural Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5621, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Robert J. Shiller & Stefano Athanasoulis, 1995. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities," NBER Working Papers 5095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Andrew Levin & Chien-Fu Lin, 1993. "Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: New Results," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 93-56, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ruey Yau, 2004. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Independent Component Analysis," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 741, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  12. Danny Quah, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0275, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  13. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "A Two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," THEMA Working Papers 2006-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
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