Relative Goods’ Prices and Pure Inflation

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Relative Goods’ Prices and Pure Inflation

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Reis, Ricardo
Watson, Mark W

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Ricardo Reis

Abstract

This paper uses a dynamic factor model for the quarterly changes in consumption goods’ prices to separate them into three components: idiosyncratic relative-price changes, aggregate relative-price changes, and changes in the unit of account. The model identifies a measure of “pure” inflation: the common component in goods’ inflation rates that has an equiproportional effect on all prices and is uncorrelated with relative price changes at all dates. The estimates of pure inflation and of the aggregate relative-price components allow us to re-examine three classic macro-correlations. First, we find that pure inflation accounts for 15-20% of the variability in overall inflation, so that most changes in inflation are associated with changes in goods’ relative prices. Second, we find that the Phillips correlation between inflation and measures of real activity essentially disappears once we control for goods’ relative-price changes. Third, we find that, at business-cycle frequencies, the correlation between inflation and money is close to zero, while the correlation with nominal interest rates is around 0.5, confirming previous findings on the link between monetary policy and inflation

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6593.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6593

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2008-01-05 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2008-01-05 (Central Banking)
NEP-MAC-2008-01-05 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-MON-2008-01-05 (Monetary Economics)

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotlowski, 2009. "Estimating pure inflation in the Polish economy," Working Papers 37, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Gregor W. Smith, 2009. "The Missing Links: Better Measures of Inflation and Inflation Expectations in Canada," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 287, April. [Downloadable!]
Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," ECARES Working Papers 2008_034, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "A quasi maximum likelihood approach for large approximate dynamic factor models," Working Paper Series 674, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
- Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

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