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Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM Business Surveys

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  • Kajal Lahiri
  • George Monokroussos

Abstract

We study the role of the well-known monthly diffusion indices produced by the Institute or Supply Management in nowcasting current quarter US GDP growth. We investigate their marginal impact on these nowcasts when large unbalanced (jagged edge) macroeconomic data sets are used in real time to generate them. We find some evidence that these ISM indices can be helpful in improving the nowcasts in the beginning of the month when new ISM information becomes available ahead of other monthly indicators.

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File URL: http://www.albany.edu/economics/research/workingp/2011/lahirimonokroussos.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 11-01.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:nya:albaec:11-01

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Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.
Phone: (518) 442-4735
Fax: (518) 442-4736

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Postal: Department of Economics, BA 110 University at Albany State University of New York Albany, NY 12222 U.S.A.
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Web: http://www.albany.edu/economics/research/workingp/index.shtml

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ergun Ermisoglu & Yasin Akcelik & Arif Oduncu, 2013. "GDP Growth and Credit Data," Working Papers 1327, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  2. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2012. "Forecasting Consumption in Real Time: The Role of Consumer Confidence Surveys," Discussion Papers 12-02, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  3. D’Agostino, Antonello & Schnatz, Bernd, 2012. "Survey-based nowcasting of US growth: a real-time forecast comparison over more than 40 years," Working Paper Series 1455, European Central Bank.
  4. Kajal Lahiri & George Monokroussos & Yongchen Zhao, 2012. "The yield spread puzzle and the information content of SPF forecasts," Discussion Papers 12-04, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  5. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & George, Asish Thomas, 2012. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between WPI and PMI-Manufacturing Price Indices in India," MPRA Paper 50929, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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