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Implementing the New Structural Model of the Czech National Bank

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Author Info

  • Michal Andrle
  • Tibor Hledik
  • Ondra Kamenik
  • Jan Vlcek

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the new “g3†structural model of the Czech National Bank and illustrate how it is used for forecasting and policy analysis. As from January 2007 the model was regularly used for shadowing official forecasts, and in July 2008 it became the core model of the CNB. In the paper we highlight the most important and unusual features of the model and discuss tools and procedures that help us in forecasting and assessing the economy with the model. The paper is not meant to provide a full derivation of the model or the complete characteristics of its behavior and should not be regarded as model documentation. Rather, the paper demonstrates how the model is used and how it contributes to policy analysis.

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File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2009_02.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2009/2.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2009/2

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Keywords: DSGE; filtering; forecasting; general equilibrium; monetary policy.;

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References

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  1. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. David Hummels & Jun Ishii & Kei-Mu Yi, 1999. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Staff Reports 72, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
  4. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 9192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2007. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0715, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Chang, Yongsung & Doh, Taeyoung & Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "Non-stationary Hours in a DSGE Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5232, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Jaromir Benes & Tibor Hledik & Michael Kumhof & David Vavra, 2005. "An Economy in Transition and DSGE: What the Czech National Bank’s New Projection Model Needs," Working Papers 2005/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  8. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2003. "Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 9568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  11. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison, 2006. "ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 97, Bank of Canada.
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