Weighted Median Inflation: Is This Core Inflation?
AbstractThis paper investigates core inflation defined as the best predictor of inflation. I compare forecasts obtained using the mean, weighted median, trimmed mean, and less food and energy inflation rates for the consumer price index and the personal consumption expenditure deflator for the current U.S. monetary policy regime. Another issue addressed is that of the systematic bias that exists due to the differences in means of these measures. I test whether correcting for this bias can lead to better inflation forecasts. This paper finds that adjusting for bias improves forecasting and that the weighted median is a better forecaster than the alternative measures and thus is a good measure of core inflation.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Luis J. Álvarez & María de los Llanos Matea, 1999.
"Underlying Inflation Measures in Spain,"
Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers
9911, Banco de Espa�a.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999.
NBER Working Papers
7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Freeman, Donald G., 1998. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 143-147, February.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A Parametric Approach for Estimating Core Inflation and Interpreting the Inflation Process," Working Paper Series 80, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.