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Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices

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  • Michael T. Kiley

Abstract

I examine the common trend in inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding prices of food and energy. Both the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) indexes and the consumer price indexes (CPI) are examined. The statistical model employed is a bivariate integrated moving average process; this model extends a univariate model that fits the data on inflation very well. The bivariate model forecasts as well as the univariate models. The results suggest that the relationship between overall consumer prices, consumer prices excluding the prices of food and energy, and the common trend has changed significantly over time. In the 1970s and early 1980s, movements in overall prices and prices excluding food and energy prices both contained information about the trend; in recent data, the trend is best gauged by focusing solely on prices excluding food and energy prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2008-38.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-38

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance);

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References

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  1. Hooker, Mark A, 2002. "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 540-61, May.
  2. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
  3. Robert Rich & Charles Steindel, 2005. "A review of core inflation and an evaluation of its measures," Staff Reports 236, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
  5. Alan S. Blinder & Ricardo Reis, 2005. "Understanding the Greenspan Standard," Working Papers 88, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
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Cited by:
  1. Theodore M. Crone & N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester & Jason A. Novak, 2008. "Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation," Working Papers 08-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Scott Davis, 2012. "The Effect of Commodity Price Shocks on Underlying Inflation: The Role of Central Bank Credibility," Working Papers 272012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  3. James Bullard, 2011. "Measuring inflation: the core is rotten," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue July, pages 223-234.
  4. Yash P. Mehra & Bansai Sawhney, 2010. "Inflation measure, Taylor rules, and the Greenspan-Bernanke years," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 2Q, pages 123-151.
  5. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," Working Papers 2013-4, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  6. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Elmar Mertens, 2011. "Measuring the level and uncertainty of trend inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Stefano Eusepi & Bart Hobijn & Andrea Tambalotti, 2009. "CONDI: a cost-of-nominal-distortions index," Working Paper Series 2009-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. Tucker S. McElroy & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2012. "Signal extraction for nonstationary multivariate time series with illustrations for trend inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Stephen G Cecchetti & Richhild Moessner, 2008. "Commodity prices and inflation dynamics," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  11. Tatom, John, 2011. "Inflation and asset prices," MPRA Paper 34606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Yash P. Mehra & Devin Reilly, 2009. "Short-term headline-core inflation dynamics," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 289-313.
  13. Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P Vahey, 2010. "Measuring Core Inflation in Australia with Disaggregate Ensembles," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.

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