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Measuring Core Inflation in Australia with Disaggregate Ensembles

In: Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks

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Author Info

  • Francesco Ravazzolo

    (Norges Bank)

  • Shaun P Vahey

    (Melbourne Business School)

Abstract

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File URL: http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2009/pdf/ravazzolo-vahey.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

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This chapter was published in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.) Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages , 2010.

This item is provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Annual Conference Volume with number acv2009-10.

Handle: RePEc:rba:rbaacv:acv2009-10

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Related research

Keywords: core inflation; ensemble forecasting; inflation forecast densities; weighted median; trimmed mean;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2010. "Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of asset returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 216-230, April.
  2. Andersson, Michael K & Karlsson, Sune, 2007. "Bayesian forecast combination for VAR models," Working Paper Series 216, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  3. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, EconWPA.
  5. Mark A. Wynne, 1999. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Working Papers 9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2008. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Working Paper 2008/22, Norges Bank.
  7. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
  8. Tony Richards & Tom Rosewall, 2010. "Measures of Underlying Inflation," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 7-12, March.
  9. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Measuring output gap uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/15, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  10. Anne-Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2008. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Paper 2008/01, Norges Bank.
  11. repec:nsr:niesrd:337 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Danny Quah & Shaun Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," Bank of England working papers 31, Bank of England.
  13. Michael T. Kiley, 2008. "Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Berkowitz, Jeremy, 2001. "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 465-74, October.
  15. Smith, Julie K, 2004. "Weighted Median Inflation: Is This Core Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 253-63, April.
  16. Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Smith, Michael, 2008. "Bayesian density forecasting of intraday electricity prices using multivariate skew t distributions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 710-727.
  17. John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2004. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Cahiers de recherche 0422, CIRPEE.
  18. Tae-Hwy Lee & Yong Bao & Burak Saltoğlu, 2007. "Comparing density forecast models Previous versions of this paper have been circulated with the title, 'A Test for Density Forecast Comparison with Applications to Risk Management' since October 2003;," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 203-225.
  19. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Amisano, Gianni & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2007. "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 177-190, April.
  21. Hugo Gerard & Kristoffer Nimark, 2008. "Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria," Economics Working Papers 1117, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2008.
  22. Ida Wolden Bache & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Macro modelling with many models," Working Paper 2009/15, Norges Bank.
  23. repec:nsr:niesrd:303 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Kenneth F. Wallis, 2005. "Combining Density and Interval Forecasts: A Modest Proposal," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 983-994, December.
  25. repec:nsr:niesrd:320 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. James Mitchell & Stephen G. Hall, 2005. "Evaluating, Comparing and Combining Density Forecasts Using the KLIC with an Application to the Bank of England and NIESR 'Fan' Charts of Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 995-1033, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Leon, Jorge, 2012. "A Disaggregate Model and Second Round Effects for the CPI Inflation in Costa Rica," MPRA Paper 44484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.

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