A Disaggregate Model and Second Round Effects for the CPI Inflation in Costa Rica
AbstractThis paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model for the headline inflation of Costa Rica, utilizing disaggregate data from the components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The period used for the estimation is characterize by a process of reduction of inflation and stabilized around the Central Bank's inflation target. The result show that the use of disaggregate data is at least as good as the aggregate data in forecast accuracy. The disaggregate model allows to differentiate the inertia and the Second-Round effects present on the inflation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 44484.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision: 2012
Inflation; Forecast; CPI; PPI; Second Round Effect.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- Marcus Cobb, 2009. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation From Disaggregate Components," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 545, Central Bank of Chile.
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