Forecasting GDP growth in times of crisis: private sector forecasts versus statistical models
AbstractThis paper examines the accuracy of short run forecasts of Dutch GDP growth by several linear statistical models and private sector analysts. We focus on the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the dot-com recession of 2001-2002. The dynamic factor model turns out to be the best model. Its forecast accuracy during the crisis deteriorates much less than that of the other linear models and hardly at all when backcasting and nowcasting. Moreover, the dynamic factor model beats the private sector forecasters at nowcasting. This finding suggests that adding judgement to a mechanical model may not improve short-term forecasting performance.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 320.
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Nowcasting; Professional Forecasters; Factor Model; Forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-11-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-11-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FDG-2011-11-14 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-FOR-2011-11-14 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-11-14 (Macroeconomics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Falk Brauning & Siem Jan Koopman, 2012.
"Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
12-042/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Bräuning, Falk & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using collapsed dynamic factor analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 572-584.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.