Comparison of Bayesian moving Average and Principal Component Forecast for Large Dimensional Factor Models
AbstractThe growing availability of financial and macroeconomic data sets including a large number of time series (hence the high dimensionality) calls for econometric methods providing a convenient and parsimonious representation of the covariance structure both in the time and the cross-sectional dimensions. Currently, dynamic factor models constitute the dominant framework across many disciplines for formal compression of information. To overcome the challenges of dimensionality, many forecast approaches proceed by somehow reducing the number of predictors. Principal component regression (PCR) approach proposes computing forecasts as projection on the first few principal components of the predictors. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach combines forecasts to extract information from different possible relationships between the predicted variable and the predictor variables. These two literature apparently moved in two different directions. However, recent findings by De Mol et al.  and the Ouysse and Kohn  suggest there are theoretical and practical reasons to connect the two literatures. This paper provides empirical evidence for connecting these two seemingly different approaches to forecasting. The empirical results serve as a preliminary guide to understanding the behaviour of BMA under double asymptotics, i.e. when the cross-section and the sample size become large.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics, The University of New South Wales in its series Discussion Papers with number 2012-03.
Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Bayesian variable selection; shrinkage regression; principal components analysis; factor models; forecasting.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
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Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
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