An Embarrassment of Riches: Forecasting Using Large Panels

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An Embarrassment of Riches: Forecasting Using Large Panels

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Jana Eklund
Sune Karlsson

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Abstract

The problem of having to select a small subset of predictors from a large number of useful variables can be circumvented nowadays in forecasting. One possibility is to efficiently and systematically evaluate all predictors and almost all possible models that these predictors in combination can give rise to. The idea of combining forecasts from various indicator models by using Bayesian model averaging is explored, and compared to diffusion indexes, another method using large number of predictors to forecast. In addition forecasts based on the median model are considered.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland in its series Economics with number wp34.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp34

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Paper
- Eklund, Jana & Karlsson, Sune, 2007. "An Embarrassment of Riches: Forecasting Using Large Panels," Working Papers 2007:1, Örebro University, Swedish Business School. [Downloadable!]

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2008-02-09 (All new papers)
NEP-ETS-2008-02-09 (Econometric Time Series)
NEP-FOR-2008-02-09 (Forecasting)

References listed on IDEAS
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Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 11285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," MPRA Paper 836, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
- Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December. [Downloadable!]
Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2004. "Forecasting in dynamic factor models using Bayesian model averaging," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 550-565, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Carmen Fernández & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, . "Benchmark priors for Bayesian Model averaging," Working Papers 98-06, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
- Carmen Fernandez & E Ley & Mark F J Steel, 2004. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian models averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 66, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
- Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F.J. Steel, 1998. "Benchmark Priors for Bayesian Model Averaging," Econometrics 9804001, EconWPA, revised 31 Jul 1999. [Downloadable!]
Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model. One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," LEM Papers Series 2003/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
- Forni M. & Hallin M., 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 143, Society for Computational Economics.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 3432, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Sune Karlsson & Tor Jacobson, 2004. "Finding good predictors for inflation: a Bayesian model averaging approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 479-496. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Jacobson, Tor & Karlsson, Sune, 2002. "Finding Good Predictors for Inflation: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Working Paper Series 138, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]

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