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Seeing Inside the Black Box: Using Diffusion Index Methodology to Construct Factor Proxies in Largescale Macroeconomic Time Series Environments

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Author Info

  • Norman R. Swanson

    ()
    (Rutgers University)

  • Nii Ayi Armah

    ()
    (Bank of Canada)

Abstract

In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this paper, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes. We then outline a number of approaches to the selection of factor proxies (observed variables that proxy unobserved estimated factors) using the statistics developed in Bai and Ng (2006a,b). Our approach to factor proxy selection is examined via a small Monte Carlo experiment, where evidence supporting our proposed methodology is presented, and via a large set of prediction experiments using the panel dataset of Stock and Watson (2005). One of our main empirical findings is that our “smoothed” approaches to factor proxy selection appear to yield predictions that are often superior not only to a benchmark factor model, but also to simple linear time series models which are generally difficult to beat in forecasting competitions. In some sense, by using our approach to predictive factor proxy selection, one is able to open up the “black box” often associated with factor analysis, and to identify actual variables that can serve as primitive building blocks for (prediction) models of a host of macroeconomic variables, and that can also serve are policy instruments, for example. Our findings suggest that important observable variables include: various S&P500 variables, including stock price indices and dividend series; a 1-year Treasury bond rate; various housing activity variables; industrial production; and exchange rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rutgers University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 201105.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 14 May 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Econometric Reviews, 29, 476-510.
Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:201105

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Keywords: diffusion index; factor; forecast; macroeconometrics; parameter estimation error; proxy;

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References

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  1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2006. "Confidence Intervals for Diffusion Index Forecasts and Inference for Factor-Augmented Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 1133-1150, 07.
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  24. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "A consistent test for nonlinear out of sample predictive accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 353-381, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christian M. Dahl & Henrik Hansen & John Smidt, 2008. "The cyclical component factor model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-44, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  2. Kihwan Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Diffusion Index Model Specification and Estimation Using Mixed Frequency Datasets," Departmental Working Papers 201315, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  3. Huyn Hak Kim & Norman R. Swanson, 2011. "Forecasting Financial and Macroeconomic Variables Using Data Reduction Methods: New Empirical Evidence," Departmental Working Papers 201119, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  4. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Testing for Structural Stability of Factor Augmented Forecasting Models," Departmental Working Papers 201314, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.

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