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Predictable dynamics in implied volatility surfaces from OTC currency options

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  • Chalamandaris, Georgios
  • Tsekrekos, Andrianos E.

Abstract

Recent empirical studies report predictable dynamics in the volatility surfaces that are implied by observed index option prices, such as those prescribed by general equilibrium models. Using an extensive data set from the over-the-counter options market, we document similar predictability in the factors that capture the daily variation of surfaces implied by options on 25 different foreign exchange rates. We proceed to demonstrate that simple vector autoregressive specifications for the factors can help produce accurate out-of-sample forecasts of the systematic component of the surface at short horizons. Profitable delta-hedged positions can be set up based on these forecasts; however, profits disappear when typical transaction costs are taken into account and when trading rules on wide segments of the surface are sought.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (June)
Pages: 1175-1188

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1175-1188

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Keywords: Implied volatility surfaces Static factor model Forecasting;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Branger, Nicole & Muck, Matthias, 2012. "Keep on smiling? The pricing of Quanto options when all covariances are stochastic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1577-1591.
  2. Georgios Chalamandaris & Andrianos Tsekrekos, 2013. "Explanatory Factors and Causality in the Dynamics of Volatility Surfaces Implied from OTC Asian–Pacific Currency Options," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 327-358, March.
  3. Dunis, Christian & Kellard, Neil M. & Snaith, Stuart, 2013. "Forecasting EUR–USD implied volatility: The case of intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4943-4957.
  4. Alejandro Bernales & Massimo Guidolin, 2012. "Can We Forecast the Implied Volatility Surface Dynamics of Equity Options? Predictability and Economic Value Tests," Working Papers 456, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.

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