Forecasting with Approximate Dynamic Factor Models: the Role of Non-Pervasive Shocks
AbstractThis paper studies the role of non-pervasive shocks when forecasting with factor models. To this end, we first introduce a new model that incorporates the effects of non-pervasive shocks, an Approximate Dynamic Factor Model with a sparse model for the idiosyncratic component. Then, we test the forecasting performance of this model both in simulations, and on a large panel of US quarterly data. We find that, when the goal is to forecast a disaggregated variable, which is usually affected by regional or sectorial shocks, it is useful to capture the dynamics generated by non-pervasive shocks; however, when the goal is to forecast an aggregate variable, which responds primarily to macroeconomic, i.e. pervasive, shocks, accounting for non-pervasive shocks is not useful.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers ECARES with number 2013/97308.
Length: 10 p.
Date of creation: Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by: Elsevier, International Journal of Forecasting
Penalized regressions; Local factors; Bayesian shrinkage; Forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-10-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-10-01 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ETS-2011-10-01 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2011-10-01 (Forecasting)
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